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Przysłuchując się debatom dotyczącym polityki zagranicznej Baracka Obamy można odnieść wrażenie, że tak naprawdę, widoczne w niej podziały można zredukować do odwiecznego pytania o w połowie pełną lub w połowie pustą szklankę. Problemem jest to, iż rzadko kiedy mówi się, że po prostu jest w niej woda.

Stephen Walt w ostatnim artykule na stronach magazynu Foreign Policy w zasadzie podsumował argumenty zwolenników jednej ze stron – szklanka jest raczej w połowie pusta. Walt podobnie jak republikanie uznaje, że pomimo sukcesów, jak obalenie Kadafiego, unicestwienie Osamy Bin Ladena, czy poprawy wizerunku Stanów Zjednoczonych na arenie międzynarodowej, istnieje szereg obszarów, w których polityka zagraniczna Obamy nie okazała się sukcesem, by nie powiedzieć,  że była porażką. Od problemów polityki klimatycznej po relacje z Pakistanem, Walt wskazuje, iż większość wyborczych obietnic Obamy w polityce zagranicznej nie została zrealizowana.

Obama in Poland

After series of unfortunate events and an outright turn of focus towards Asia, Barack Obama reminds the old allies of their importance to the United States. US President will attend the Summit of Eastern European leaders to discuss a range of issues concerning regional politics as well as a broader context of the revolutions sweeping the Middle East and the role Eastern Europe can play in providing political assistance in the democratic processes emerging in the region.

The meeting, albeit very limited in a time-span, will be an important event for Polish leaders. Poland, assuming the leadership of the EU in July will have a chance to present itself as an important stakeholder in the region with a potential to influence the most pressing debates within the European Union. This should be the top priority of this largely symbolic meeting, serving mostly President Obama, a Chicago politician, aware of the election impact of the significant Polish minority.

Poland still seems to seek its vision for the transatlantic relationship. The theme included in President’s addresses in Ireland, and primarily in the British Parliament, should be a reminder to Polish leaders, as in the case of their British counterparts, that the United States wants to see the EU as a more coherent, and active actor with less divisions or particular interests. Only then it will play a decisive role as a US ally, and it will contribute to retaining the position of the West vis-à-vis emerging powers in Asia. This is a vital point. What it portends for the topics covered during the meeting? Poland should definitely highlight its assets: strong commitment to the alliance with the US, recalibration of its foreign policy towards the EU, and last but not least, its experience in building democratic institutions, a valuable element, both in terms of the Eastern Partnership and the Arab Spring. Poland has a chance to promote institution building in Africa due to success of its own democracy, and provide leadership, training and assistance. This would contribute to Warsaw’s standing in Europe, especially in face of the upcoming Polish Presidency. Poland should seek an active role in policies on the EU’s agenda, balancing it against its own, namely the Eastern Partnership. EU experience demonstrates that those who remain on top of political discussion have an upper hand in advancing their agenda – a pure quid pro quo. This, of course, does not imply that Eastern Partnership is solely in Poland’s interest. It is in the interest of the EU, but so are the matters pertaining to revolutions in the Middle East. To avoid divergence of emphases, Poland should also provide some form of leadership on these issues. Positive signs towards that stance were demonstrated during Minister Sikorski’s visit to Libya and Lech Walesa’s in Tunisia, where he discussed Solidarity’s struggle to create a new political reality. Poland ought to seek US endorsement in promoting its experience.

Other points will definitely include shale gas and defence matters. The attitude towards shale gas extraction in EU is mixed, and resurgent Poland benefitting economically, at the epicenter of the pipeline infrastructure from Russia to Germany, will be a source of resentment from the aforesaid actors, if not from the other as well. Just last week, the French parliament refused to endorse the shale gas extraction due to environmental reasons. This means that Polish delegation should discuss the ramifications of Poland’s potential emergence as an exporter of gas in the regional and international context and how to accommodate diverging interests pertaining to the matter. Ensuring American support in this dimension should be a priority, for the US companies are already vividly interested in investment in both technology to extract and the infrastructure it requieres – they will make sure the US administration acts accordingly in the future. Not surprisingly, Poland also wants to discuss some form of US military involvement. Pre-visit comments by the government officials are somewhat inconsistent, both affirming Polish reliance on NATO in terms of its security, i.e. contingency planning, Weimar battle group, missile defence etc., and by the same token, stressing the possibility for F16 and Hercules rotational presence. I would argue that binding the US and Polish interests in the field of defence will not occur through stationing less than a hundred (at best) US servicemen. Poland, a member of NATO, does not face any military threats from its closest neighbors, therefore F16 and Hercules planes should be perceived as a chance to provide training for the Polish servicemen, not a security guarantee. Then, there is the question of visas. Previously, a centerpiece of every agenda during the state visits- now, due to the new Polish perspective, a problem for the US. The topic, basically in the hands of the US Congress will not, and should not be emphasized by Polish delegation.

President Obama’s visit to Poland, albeit very short, should provide a motivating impetus and regional splendour, both important for the upcoming Polish presidency. The fact that Warsaw has been chosen as the host of the summit gathering regional leaders and the President of the United States presents an opportunity to strengthen Poland’s influence in the region. The time for meetings is scarce, and as officials here stress, every minute will be important. Polish leaders should seize that opportunity to seek American support for promoting what it might offer, both in Europe and abroad. There are prospects for success, for the US is looking towards more decisive, coherent Europe. While the visit almost certainly will not bring any significant results, it will definitely serve as a good start to advance Polish aspirations to become a credible leader in the EU.

AB