Rok Drona

Jeden z najbardziej cenionych amerykańskich sekretarzy stanu John Quincy Adams, kiedy formułował receptę na politykę zagraniczną, stwierdził, że Stany Zjednoczone „nie powinny kierować się ku zagranicy w poszukiwaniu potworów, które należy unicestwić”. W ostatnim czasie to „poszukiwanie potworów” staje się powoli coraz łatwiejsze.

Bin Laden killed in Pakistan

Osama Bin Laden is dead. Unlike President Obama who scored a major foreign policy achievement before the election season, the Pakistani leadership is in a tough situation. It is now known that Bin Laden was found and killed in a compound in Abbottabad, near Islamabad, a garrison town of Pakistani military. Pakistani government in a statement on Ministry of Foreign affairs website welcomed the news, but highlighted the operation to be in line with“declared US policy that Osama bin Ladin will be eliminated in a direct action by the US forces, wherever found in the world.” and stressed its resolve to fight terrorism and eliminate it from Pakistani soil. (full statement)

The statement reflects the dilemma Pakistani government is now facing. In a recent rift with the US, Pakistani civilian and military leaders criticized the scale of American intelligence operations in Pakistan using unmanned aircraft, causing major strains between Washington and Islamabad. The operation in Abbottabad, as reported in the media, has not been consulted with Pakistani authorities, most likely in fear of failure. There, on the other hand, Pakistan is charged with tacit support for terrorist groups awarded by the Pakistani intelligence – ISI and members of the military which is seen as one of the obstacles to a more active engagement in denying safe havens for insurgents. What will happen now is unclear. As the news regarding this special operation unfolds, certainly there will be more questions as to why one of the most known faces in the world managed to survive there for so long. The compound was reportedly eight times bigger than other residences with massive walls topped with barbed wire for protection. It is plausible, that Pakistani leadership for the time being will scale back its criticism for the US operations on its territory in light of its questionable role in all of this. However, recent endeavors to bolster its regional influence in ending the war in Afghanistan involving intense talks with the Afghan government, might in turn be escalated, as the killing of Osama Bin Laden undermines the justification for further US presence in Afghanistan – thereby providing a potential for reinforcing its interests (involving the future of Afghan state, the role of India, and the size of the Afghan army) in forging the endgame for the conflict with its neighbor. The outlook for Islamabad is mixed, and depends on the nature of Pakistan’s support for Bin Laden or the lack there of – factors unknown to the overall public so far. What is clear, the operation will have some impact for the diplomatic dynamics in the region with potential internal consequences for the leadership in Islamabad. Whether Pakistan’s standing should improve or falter is still an open question.

AB